Should Americans Move to Europe Due to Terrifying Violence?

Maybe? But more old people die from heat in Europe than Americans by homicide.

I don’t indulge much in the “Should You Move to Europe?” debate. Where one lives (like homeschooling, veganism, trad lifestyle, Unitarianism, or Crossfit etc.) is a personal choice, as it should be.

But I often weigh in on public policy and cultural narratives—and lately I’ve observed an online phenomenon: Americans, particularly affluent ones, warning that one must flee America for Europe for reasons of personal safety.

In this telling, America is a dystopian wasteland of gunfire and hate crimes, where every trip to the grocery store risks a fatal encounter. If one isn’t shot dead first, they suggest, perhaps one will be put in a concentration camp.

According to a November 6 Fortune article, “But wealthy citizens are increasingly considering a life across the Atlantic, with Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House being labeled as the reason.” The article goes on to quote David, 65 year old lawyer with a home-buying budget of $500,000, “I told my wife about 15 years ago that I had made peace with the fact that I could be shot dead at any moment in time in this country.”

To be clear, David is entitled to his feelings and to stake his claim on beachfront property in Portugal. But, as we will soon see, his concern about gun violence doesn’t square with statistics.

Others here on Substack have voiced concerns about concentration camps or being rounded up and deported. One woman (white, a mental health professional) claims she wrote “asylum” on her immigration forms.

I respect people’s individual choices and the feelings that lead to them. I also think violence in America is a grave matter that deserves a clear-eyed look.

For the record, in this article, I have tried to reference neutral sources such as Pew, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and outlets like Reuters.

Before continuing, as this is the internet, it bears mentioning a few things…

• This is NOT a criticism of anyone for their choice. There are tons of reasons for moving- burnout, seeking adventure, marriage and family, a new life, etc. Live your best life, be it in Des Moines, Iowa, or Paris, France.

• Maybe some Americans did live in high-crime areas before moving to Europe.

• This is not a treatise on the Second Amendment or gun laws.

• This is not an essay on crime and race. That is a huge topic, and many others have already done a great job on it.

Let’s look at some facts.

America’s History With Guns in Five Seconds

A lot of people, understandably so, are perplexed by America’s Second Amendment, which gives US citizens the right to bear arms, or own a gun. The constitution says, “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

This reflects the deeper American concept of natural rights. Rights are not dispensed by governments but exist independently of them. The government’s job is to protect those rights. So, while gun ownership may seem like an odd, and even dangerous, relic to outsiders, it is woven into the nation’s founding.

There are, of course, debates over reasonable limits—whether a civilian needs a fully automatic rifle or restrictions for those with mental issues, for instance. But that’s another conversation.

Now that you know why we have this part of our rights, let’s talk about gun violence in America.

The Real Numbers on Gun Violence

According to Pew, in 2023, there were 46,278 total gun deaths in the United States- a staggering number. And these numbers deserve a closer look.

Suicides account for 60% of all gun-related deaths. Yup most gun deaths are not drive-by shootings, white supremacy, Islamic terror, or even gang violence. It is suicide.

This means there are 5.6 gun murders per 100,000 people. Let’s compare that to some other numbers:

• Heart disease kills 173 per 100,000

• Cancer: 152 per 100,000

• Kidney disease: 13 per 100,000

Your odds of dying from kidney disease exceed your chances of being shot.

Ok, but where is gun violence most prevalent? Maybe someone’s state or city is extremely dangerous.

Great question. Below is a table from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the highest homicide rates. As best I know, this does not control for homicide by gun specifically, but it is still helpful.

According to Axios, “Zoom in: St. Louis had America's highest gun homicide rate in 2022, followed by Birmingham, Ala., New Orleans, Jackson, Miss., and Baltimore.” And “Yes, but: Gun homicide rates were higher overall in blue cities — as defined by the mayor's party affiliation — than in red ones.”

The article goes on to say that states, not cities, control gun laws, so the cities, to a degree, are at the mercy of the state legislature. But, we nevertheless see where gun violence is the most prevalent.

Those familiar with America’s racial makeup may have already picked up that cities with larger Black populations have higher rates of gun violence. It is uncomfortable to talk about this, but often the most uncomfortable topics are the most important.

• St. Louis, MO, 43% Black

• Birmingham, Ala., 68%

• New Orleans, LA 54%

• Jackson, Miss., 78%

• Baltimore, MD 57%

And, homicide is the leading cause of death for Black males ages 1-19 and 20-44 and is the fifth leading cause of death for Black men of all ages.

And, as

Noah Smith

has pointed out, most crime in the US is intraracial. 80% of white homicides are committed by whites. 88% of Black homicides are committed by Blacks.

This isn’t to suggest Black Americans are inherently violent or deserving of harm. Only racist cretins think that. The reality is that gun violence disproportionately impacts specific communities. The only way to solve that problem is with honesty.¹

But let’s turn back to the “Do I need to flee violence?” question.

For a 30-year-old white, college-educated woman living in Park Slope, Brooklyn, the odds of being murdered are near statistical irrelevance—well below 1 in 100,000 (at least according to ChatGPT).

The Heat Is On

Let’s zoom out further.

Tyler Cowen

recently pointed out that there are more heat-related deaths in Europe than gun murders in the US. My mind was blown. My apartment was hot.

According to the European Climate and Health Observatory, “Europe counted 47,690 excess deaths due to heat in 2023,” In 2023 in the US there 17,927 murders by gun.

The EU has about 450 million residents. The US has about 340 million.

Old people in Europe are more likely to die from heat than Ashleigh, the ad exec in Chicago, is to be shot and killed.

Will You Be Put in a Concentration Camp?

During the first Trump years, certain pundits darkly warned of impending concentration camps on American soil. Google "Donald Trump 'concentration camps'" and you’ll find no shortage of breathless headlines (screenshot below).

Whatever one might think of Trump’s immigration policies, people who worry about being sent to “Alligator Alcatraz” are likely not the same people considering buying beachfront villas or old castles.

At the end of the day, where you choose to live is a personal decision. Move to Europe, buy that old stone cottage, homestead in Vermont, girlboss your way to Bali—may 1,000 flowers bloom.

But let’s be honest. America has a violence problem, and it is serious. Yet it is also complex, specific, and deserving of a serious and nuanced policy conversation.

To frame a move to Europe as an escape from indiscriminate violence is intellectually lazy and insulting to the communities in America who live with the consequences of violence daily.

If Europe or elsewhere calls— follow your dream. But please keep in mind that you’re embracing a lifestyle, not saving your life.

Photo by Michael Bader on Unsplash

I had no idea what image was appropriate for this?

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1. If you are interested in learning more about crime and race, I recommend…

No, the Criminal-Justice System Isn’t Racist by Jason Riley

Fatal Police Shootings and Race: A Review of the Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research by

Robert VerBruggen

They’re Lying About Hate Crimes,

Wilfred Reilly

on the

Triggernometry

with

Francis Foster

and

Konstantin Kisin

The Woodson Center